Introduction: The Challenge of Constant Chaos
In today’s business environment, managing a project can feel like navigating a ship through a perpetual storm. Plans meticulously crafted in calm waters are quickly rendered obsolete by the turbulent waves of internal change and external disruption. We are told to plan more, control harder, and build ever-more complex systems to manage the chaos. But what if that conventional wisdom is failing us?
This constant state of turbulence amplifies complexity, and our traditional approaches are struggling to keep up. The pursuit of perfect, long-range predictability often leads to a dangerous „planning tunnel vision,“ leaving us rigid and fragile when we need to be flexible and resilient.
This article distils lessons from my experience in more than 30 years of project management. A systemic approach to project management is a key success factor for my work. We will explore the interconnected pillars of this framework, a worldview that challenges our core assumptions about control. It provides a new lens through which to view your project challenges, offering a set of counter-intuitive principles—all pointing to a single, potent thesis: in turbulent times, simplicity is your ultimate strategic advantage.
Takeaway 1: Forget Predictability—Adaptability Is Your Only Safe Bet
In turbulent environments, the relentless pursuit of detailed, long-range predictability is a losing game. It fosters a ‚planning tunnel vision‘ that can lock teams into a failing course of action. The real goal is not to create a perfect plan, but to build a resilient system capable of navigating risk and adapting to change as it happens.
This requires a fundamental mindset shift, one that involves leaving the „thrive for predictability“ completely behind. Instead of asking, „Is our plan perfect?“ we should be asking, „How quickly can we adapt when our plan breaks?“ This is a difficult transition for many project managers, who are often trained and rewarded for prioritizing meticulous planning and tight control above all else. Yet, in the face of true uncertainty, adaptability is the only reliable path to success.
Takeaway 2: That Famous Law About Complexity? It Might Be Misleading You.
Many in management have heard of Ashby’s Law of Requisite Variety, often summarized as „complex systems require complex solutions.“ The idea is that a management system must be as flexible as the project it seeks to control. This principle is frequently used to justify adding more processes and complexity to our management approach.
However, this is a dangerous misapplication of the law in the face of modern complexity. The key lies in understanding context. Ashby’s Law isn’t wrong; it’s simply that it correctly „addresses simple or complicated situations,“ not truly complex ones. In the language of the Cynefin framework, it applies to the Complicated domain, where expert analysis can diagnose a problem and prescribe a correct solution. It does not apply to the Complex domain, where cause and effect are only clear in hindsight and solutions must emerge through experimentation.
This misunderstanding has led to common project management interpretations, such as this one from PMI Infinity, which suggests a path of mirroring complexity:
Ashby’s law suggests that complex systems require complex solutions. For project management, this implies that managing a complex project necessitates equally flexible and adaptive management practices.
Challenging this interpretation is the first step toward a more effective strategy. Instead of building bloated management structures to mirror a project’s chaos, we can seek a radically simpler approach.
Takeaway 3: Simplicity Routinely Outperforms Complexity (And There’s Proof)
Instead of mirroring complexity with more complexity, evidence shows that simple rules and heuristics are often more robust, transparent, and efficient, especially under conditions of uncertainty. While it feels counter-intuitive, simple models often succeed because they capture fundamental patterns rather than getting lost in statistical „noise.“ They remain effective even when data is incomplete—a common reality in turbulent projects.
The proof isn’t just theoretical; it comes from numerous real-world domains:
- In Medicine: A simple decision tree using only three cues to assess potential heart attacks was found to be more accurate than the unaided judgments of many physicians. It was also transparent, fast, and required minimal data.
- In Sports: An athlete catching a high fly ball doesn’t subconsciously calculate complex physics trajectories. Instead, they use a simple „gaze heuristic“—keeping the angle of their gaze on the ball constant—to guide them to the right spot.
- In Finance: The simple „1/N“ portfolio allocation rule, which evenly distributes investment across ‚N‘ assets, frequently outperforms complex, optimized portfolios calculated with modern portfolio theory, especially in situations of true uncertainty where optimization models fail.
This directly connects back to our first takeaway. Simple rules don’t just work better; they are what enable the rapid adaptation we need. Because they don’t rely on a stable, predictable model of the world, they are inherently more resilient and allow teams to pivot quickly when the ground shifts beneath them.
Takeaway 4: To Solve an „Impossible“ Problem, Redraw the System’s Boundaries
A system is a set of interconnected elements whose essential properties arise from the relations between those elements. A project is more than just a list of tasks; it’s a dynamic whole. The most critical insight here is that systems are not objective realities—we define their boundaries. What we decide is „in“ or „out“ of the system fundamentally determines our available solutions.
When faced with an unsolvable problem, the most powerful move is often not to work harder within the existing rules, but to redefine the problem itself. This is the ultimate act of simplification—cutting through perceived complexity to find a direct, powerful solution. History provides classic examples of this mindset. Faced with the „unsolvable“ Gordian knot, Alexander the Great didn’t try to untie it; he drew his sword and cut it in half. Similarly, Johannes Kepler unlocked the secrets of planetary motion only when he rejected the dogma that God must have used perfect circles and instead modeled orbits as ellipses.
Success sometimes calls for a rebel’s mindset — daring to redraw the system’s borders.
For a project manager, this could mean questioning a „mandatory“ technology stack that is causing integration nightmares, or challenging a budget structure that separates capital and operational expenses in a way that prevents an agile, iterative solution. Sometimes the key is to question the very definition of the problem you’re trying to solve.
Takeaway 5: Leadership Isn’t a Title—It’s a Shared Team Process
In a turbulent environment, relying on a single, centralized leader to make every critical decision creates a bottleneck and a single point of failure. A more resilient and simple approach views leadership not as a formal title, but as a set of processes that can and should be shared across the entire team.
The Bowers & Seashore Leadership Model identifies four key processes essential for high performance. The core insight is that these can be performed by team members for each other (peer leadership), not just by the formal leader for their subordinates.
The four key leadership processes are:
- Create Goal Clarity & Acceptance: Ensuring everyone understands and is committed to the objectives.
- Support Team Member Development: Helping colleagues grow their skills and capabilities.
- Develop Team Relationship: Building trust, respect, and a cohesive social climate.
- Optimize Working Conditions: Actively improving the tools, processes, and environment to help the team succeed.
From this systemic perspective, the primary role of a formal project leader is to foster an environment where this shared, peer leadership can emerge and flourish. This decentralizes leadership, making the entire team more adaptive, resilient, and capable of navigating complexity together.
Conclusion: Your Guiding Principle in the Chaos
The five takeaways presented here are not isolated tips; they are the interconnected pillars of a coherent systemic framework for managing projects in turbulent times. This worldview demands a fundamental shift: from rigid control to flexible adaptation, from mirroring complexity to embracing elegant simplicity, and from centralized command to shared leadership. Thriving in turbulence isn’t about having a better plan; it’s about building a more resilient and adaptive team guided by simple, powerful principles.
As you move forward, consider the rules that govern your own projects. Ask yourself this one guiding question:
„In your current project, what is one rule or boundary you take for granted, that—if challenged—could unlock a simple solution to your most complex problem?“